📘 Field Guide

🏛️ Bellafiore Foundations — The Heart of "One Good Trade" FOUNDATION

🎯 Picture this

You walk into SMB Capital's NYC trading floor at 7:30 AM. Mike Bellafiore is reviewing tape from yesterday with his prop traders. He doesn't ask, "What stocks made money?" He asks one question: "Did you make ONE good trade?"

That phrase — One Good Trade — reframes everything. It's not about being right or wrong. It's about process integrity. Did you read the tape correctly? Did you size correctly? Did you exit at your plan? If yes, the trade was "good" regardless of P&L. If no, even a winning trade was "bad" and will hurt you long-term.

"The goal is not to make money on this trade. The goal is to make One Good Trade. Money is the byproduct of consistent process." — Bellafiore, One Good Trade

📦 The 5 Pillars of Bellafiore's Framework

🔑 Bellafiore's 4 Universal Rules (memorize these)

1. Don't trade just to trade. Most days have 3–7 setups WORTH taking. Force the rest and you bleed.
2. Read the tape, not the chart. The chart lags. The prints lead. When prints flip red while the chart still looks green, the move is over.
3. Size = conviction × risk budget. Not "how much I want." Conviction comes from confluence — multiple signals agreeing. No confluence = no size.
4. Plan the exit BEFORE the entry. Stop, first target, runner target. Written down. Non-negotiable.

🧠 The Mindset Anchor

Bellafiore trains his floor traders to say out loud before each entry: "This is one good trade." The phrase serves as a mental gate. If you can't say it convincingly — you don't take the trade.

Try this tomorrow: Before EVERY entry, whisper or think: "This is one good trade." If you hesitate even slightly — SKIP IT. That hesitation is your subconscious detecting weak confluence your conscious mind hadn't surfaced yet. Trust it.

📚 Recommended reading order

• One Good Trade (2010) — the philosophy + pillars 1-3
• The PlayBook (2012) — specific setups: opening drive, helmet break, POC defense, momentum trade, gap trade
• SMB Foundation videos on YouTube — free, narrated tape sessions showing the framework live

🔥 Tape Reader Pro — Your Execution Gate TICKER · TOP OF SCALPING CC

🎯 Imagine this

You spot a setup on Stocks-In-Play. Your finger reaches for BUY. Instead, you glance at ONE big number on the Tape Reader Pro card — the Confluence Score. In two seconds you know whether all four forces (market regime, live tape, multi-timeframe trend, technical setup) are pushing the SAME direction or fighting each other.

What you see

• Ticker switcher + QUICK buttons for SPY/QQQ/NVDA/TSLA/AAPL/AMD/MSFT/META
• Confluence Score 0–100 with directional pill (LONG / SHORT / NEUTRAL)
• 4 signal cells showing each force's adjusted contribution (FLOW / MARKET / MULTI-TF / SETUP)
• LONGS / SHORTS / SIZE action pills with go/wait/skip verdicts
• Multi-TF strip: 5m · 15m · 1h · day with flow %, RSI, distance from SMA20
• Forecast: regime-aware next-30-min expectancy from historical SMA20 breaks
• Time & Sales: last 20 prints with SWP · DARK · BIG flags

🎛️ Mode weighting (scalping vs swing)

⚠ Divergence rule (the pro secret)

When two signals disagree (e.g. NVDA buying / Market RISK_OFF), both get halved. Reason: a strong stock in a weak tape is usually a LATE-stage move — the last leg before reversal. Big money unloads INTO retail buying.

Result: the system protects you from the exact mistake that catches 90% of retail traders — chasing strength in a weak tape.

✨ Alignment bonus (the money moment)

When all 4 forces agree the same direction, score gets +15 bonus. Bellafiore calls this "the easy money trade." Maybe 2–3 per session. Pros 2–3× their normal size here.

Refresh cadence

• Confluence score: every 5 seconds
• Time & Sales + NBBO + flow: every 1.5 seconds
• Multi-TF: every 15 seconds (slower because flow over 5m/15m/1h doesn't change at 1.5s)

Workflow (lock this in)

1. Spot a setup on Stocks-In-Play or your Live Watchlist
2. Type the ticker into Tape Reader Pro (or click a QUICK button)
3. Read the Confluence Score — that's your gate
4. Obey the LONGS / SHORTS / SIZE pills
5. See ⚠ DIVERGENCE → reduce size further or skip
6. See ✨ ALIGNED → press 2–3× normal size

⚡ Confluence Score — The Four-Force Calculation TICKER · INSIDE TAPE READER PRO

The four forces

1. FLOW — last 60 seconds of trade prints, classified buy/sell via Lee-Ready tick rule. Range: ±85.
2. MARKET — master tape read from Internals (TICK + TRIN + Breadth + VIX). Range: ±85.
3. MULTI-TF — weighted flow across 5m / 15m / 1h / day. Range: ±85.
4. SETUP — 5m trend (price vs SMA20/EMA9/MACD) + RSI bands. Range: ±85.

The formula

weighted = flow*w_flow + market*w_market + multi_tf*w_multi_tf + setup*w_setup

if divergences detected:
  conflicting signals each * 0.5

if all 4 signals > +30  → weighted += 15  (ALIGNED BULL bonus)
if all 4 signals < -30  → weighted -= 15  (ALIGNED BEAR bonus)

final_signed = clamp(weighted, -100, +100)
score = 50 + final_signed * 0.5    → maps to 0-100

The 5 zones

🧭 Market Internals — The Tape Reader's Compass MACRO · ALL PAGES

🎯 Picture this

You're about to enter a trade. Before clicking BUY, you take ONE breath, glance at four numbers, and KNOW — in 2 seconds — whether the market is helping or fighting you. Four numbers. Two seconds. One go/no-go answer.

The four numbers

The 3 habits

1. The Veto — Before EVERY entry, glance at verdict pill. Long needs ≥ BALANCED. Short needs ≤ BALANCED. Eliminates ~30% of losing scalps without changing your setups.
2. The Size Dial — Verdict is your volume knob. STRONG_RISK_ON + long = 1.0×. BALANCED = 0.5×. RISK_OFF against you = 0.25× or skip.
3. The Reversal Tell — SPY rising + TICK falling + TRIN rising for 15+ min = distribution → fade coming. Inverse = absorption → bounce coming.

Anchor this: The strip is a veto first, a size dial second, a reversal alert third. Make ONE habit automatic before all others: glance at the verdict BEFORE every click.

🌐 Intermarket Regime MACRO · TOP OF PAGE

What it is

The 4-asset canonical chain (Stocks / Bonds / Commodities / Dollar) mapped to one of 16 named macro regimes. Each regime has a specific trade thesis with citations.

How it computes

5-day % returns of SPY / TLT / DBC / UUP are signed (U = up, D = down) and concatenated into a 4-letter chain (e.g. "UDUD"). The chain is looked up against the 16-regime table.

Persistence

A regime is shown as ACTIVE only if it has been the same chain for 3+ consecutive sessions. Otherwise TRANSITIONING with the prior active regime preserved.

The 16 regimes

How to act

🌊 Sector Rotation SECTOR · TOP OF PAGE

What it is

A composite 0-100 score per sector ETF combining 4 proven methodologies. Strict mode (default) requires all three filters to pass for ROTATING IN: Weinstein Stage 2 + O'Neil Trend Template 8/8 + Wyckoff Phase D or E.

The 4 methodologies

Buckets

• Growth — XLK, SOXX, XBI, XLY, IWM
• Cyclical — XLI, XLB, XLE, URA
• Financial — XLF, KRE
• Defensive — XLV, XLP, XLU, XLRE
• Safe Haven — TLT, GLD, UUP, TIP
• Speculative — IBIT (crypto)

Rotation Pairs

The system identifies the dominant out→in bucket flow when the spread between top and bottom buckets is ≥ 25 points. Each pair has a named interpretation (e.g. "RISK-OFF / FLIGHT TO QUALITY -- growth rotating OUT into bonds/gold").

How to act

🎯 Stocks in Rotating Sectors SECTOR

What it is

For every sector with rotation score ≥ 60, the system pulls that sector's members from a curated universe (~280 tickers) and applies the same O'Neil Trend Template at the individual stock level. Only stocks passing 6/8 or 8/8 criteria are surfaced.

What you see

• Ticker with template score (8/8 = green, 6-7/8 = yellow)
• RS rating — stock's 12m relative strength vs SPY, scaled 0-100
• IN PLAY badge if currently in today's SIP composite
• Catalyst bias (BULL / BEAR) if a fresh catalyst is present

🎯 Premarket Conviction Board (REMOVED) PREMARKET · 4-11 AM ET

What it is

For every ticker that was in play yesterday, a 0-100 conviction score for today's continuation. The board sorts highest-conviction first so you triage at a glance.

How the score is built

Tiers

• HIGH (≥ 60) — Strong continuation candidate. Pre-position to TC2000 watch.
• MEDIUM (40-59) — Worth watching but waiting for confirmation.
• LOW (< 40) — Skip or short side only.

🪖 POC + Helmets (Important Intraday Levels) PREMARKET

What it is

From yesterday's 1-minute bars, the system buckets volume into $0.10 (or proportional) price slots and identifies:

• POC (Point of Control) — single price slot with the most volume. The day's most-defended level.
• HVN (High Volume Node) — any slot with ≥3× average slot volume.
• Helmet — any slot with ≥5× average slot volume. A large absorber sat there.

Bellafiore's trade setup

Why no Level 2 needed

Bellafiore originally used tape reading + L2 to spot helmets. We approximate using 1-minute volume-by-price from Yahoo (delayed 15 min during RTH). The signal is the same: clusters of volume around a single price reveal where institutions defended. Delayed minute data is sufficient for the multi-hour hold his framework targets.

🔁 Still In Play (Carryover) TICKER

What it is

Every SIP composite is snapshotted to Supabase daily. The carryover detector compares today's status against the prior 5 sessions to flag continuation patterns.

The 4 carryover chips

✨ Card Highlights Chips TICKER · PER CARD

What it is

Every watchlist card and SIP row carries a chip strip of objective daily-decision triggers. Server-derived chips combine with SIP-derived chips, deduplicated, severity-sorted (high → medium → info).

Mode filtering

Swing mode (Command Center) keeps GAP_HOLDING / GAP_FADED / GRADE_A and drops ORB_BREAK / ADR_LOW. Scalp mode (Scalping CC) does the inverse — keeps intraday-only chips.

The chip library

📊 Stocks In Play (SIP) TICKER · CC PANEL

What it is

A composite 0-10 score per ticker measuring "is this stock in play right now?" Combines:

• RVOL (relative volume vs 20d avg)
• RS vs SPY (relative strength today)
• Price move (% from prev close)
• Short interest + days-to-cover
• Catalyst freshness (BULL / BEAR / NEUTRAL / NO_CATALYST)

Threshold

composite ≥ 6 = in_play. The NO_CATALYST penalty multiplies composite by 0.7 to demote names lacking a fresh story.

📈 Stock Watch TICKER · CC PANEL

What it is

Per-ticker tiles for the selected universe (Watchlist 31 or any of 6 sectors or full 280-name universe) showing:

• Swing grade A+/A/B/C based on bias + pattern + catalyst alignment
• Bias bar rally % vs correction % for the session
• Gap state holding / faded
• Best long + short setups with strategy names
• Highlights chip strip (swing mode)

Sector dropdown

Pick a sector universe to swap the panel's tickers. Watchlist (31), Semiconductors (40), Energy/Uranium (44), Tech Megacap (60), Crypto/Coin (28), Biotech/Pharma (40), Industrials/Defense (40), or Full Universe (~280).

⚡ Scalping Cards (v2) TICKER · SCALPING CC

What it is

One card per ticker. Collapsed shows ticker, price, %, RVOL, regime chip, catalyst chip, top 3 highlights, and the top playing-today strategy. Click to expand into the full per-card workspace.

Expanded card sections (in order)

1. ✨ Highlights · Daily Triggers — full chip strip
2. 🎯 Playing Today — top strategy match (T1-T3 / R1-R2) with conflict warnings
3. 📰 Catalyst
4. 📊 Setup POV — long/short triggers
5. 📍 Pivots/S/R + ATM Strikes
6. 📉 Short Interest
7. ⚡ Leveraged ETF with liquidity tier
8. 📋 Trading Rules — spread, badges (0DTE / HIGH-VOL)
9. 📈 Live TradingView Chart with VWAP overlay
10. ↻ Refresh this card

📝 Journal Strategy Codes TICKER · JOURNAL

Codes

⏰ Recommended Daily Workflow

5:00 AM ET (automated)

Cron runs intraday-levels-extractor — pulls yesterday's 1-min bars for in-play tickers, computes POC/HVN/Helmets, writes to intraday_levels.

5:30 AM ET (automated)

Cron runs sector-rotation — recomputes Stage + Template + Wyckoff + RS for 20 ETFs, writes to sector_rotation_history.

6:45 AM ET (you)

1. Open the Command Center — look at the 🌐 Regime banner first. If it's ACTIVE, that's your macro filter.
2. Scan 🌊 Sector Rotation — identify which sectors are ROTATING IN.
3. Read the 🎯 Stocks in Rotating Sectors picks under the rotation panel.
4. Drop to 🎯 Conviction Board — names with score ≥ 60 are your A-list for today.
5. For each A-list name, expand on the Scalping CC card to see POC, Helmets, Trading Rules, chart.
6. Cross-check against your TC2000 + ThinkorSwim/Power E*TRADE setups.

8:30 AM ET (automated)

Daily morning briefing email arrives with yesterday's journal failure-mode coach (top losses by category, discipline triggers, day-of-week alerts).

9:30 AM ET (you)

Trade. Stay in TC2000 / Power E*TRADE / ThinkorSwim. The Command Center is for prep, not live execution.

4:00 PM ET (you)

Log trades in the journal with the correct strategy code (T1-T3 / R1-R2 / O1 / W4 / B1). Tomorrow morning's failure-mode coach reads from these entries.